Numerical data for Figure 10 ============================ region: Tropics Continental reconstructions from : Bartlein et al., 2011 MAT LGM - PI anomaly, average (standard deviation), in K -3.16 ( 1.15) Marine reconstructions from : MARGO 2009 MAT LGM - PI anomaly, average (standard deviation), in K -1.54 ( 0.70) model results (model output only taken over reconstruction sites) model name, average (std) over land, average (std) over oceans CCSM4, -3.42 ( 0.03), -2.31 ( 0.02) CNRM-CM5, -2.55 ( 0.02), -1.50 ( 0.02) COSMOS-aso, -5.53 ( 0.08), -3.66 ( 0.06) FGOALS-g2, -4.99 ( 0.02), -2.80 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p150, -3.79 ( 0.02), -2.55 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p151, -3.94 ( 0.02), -2.65 ( 0.01) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -4.38 ( 0.03), -3.15 ( 0.02) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -3.32 ( 0.03), -2.28 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -3.80 ( 0.03), -2.30 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -3.94 ( 0.03), -2.41 ( 0.02) MRI-CGCM3, -3.78 ( 0.02), -2.63 ( 0.02) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -2.05 ( 0.03), -1.80 ( 0.02) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -2.57 ( 0.04), -1.89 ( 0.03) CESM1.2, -5.00 ( 0.03), -3.81 ( 0.02) HadCM3-PMIP3, -5.92 ( 0.03), -3.71 ( 0.02) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -4.91 ( 0.03), -3.09 ( 0.02) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -5.50 ( 0.03), -3.59 ( 0.02) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -2.38 ( 0.01), -1.65 ( 0.01) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -2.31 ( 0.01), -1.63 ( 0.01) INM-CM4-8, -2.65 ( 0.02), -2.12 ( 0.01) IPSLCM5A2, -4.44 ( 0.02), -3.09 ( 0.02) MIROC-ES2L, -2.48 ( 0.04), -2.04 ( 0.03) MPI-ESM-1.2, -3.11 ( 0.04), -1.88 ( 0.03) UoT-CCSM4, -3.33 ( 0.02), -2.39 ( 0.02) ===================================== region: Tropics Continental reconstructions from : Cleator et al., 2020 MAT LGM - PI anomaly, average (standard deviation), in K -4.76 ( 1.05) Marine reconstructions from : Tierney et al., 2020 (w/o data assimilation) MAT LGM - PI anomaly, average (standard deviation), in K -2.64 ( 0.56) model results (model output only taken over reconstruction sites) model name, average (std) over land, average (std) over oceans CCSM4, -3.26 ( 0.03), -2.46 ( 0.02) CNRM-CM5, -2.32 ( 0.02), -1.65 ( 0.02) COSMOS-aso, -5.61 ( 0.09), -3.94 ( 0.06) FGOALS-g2, -4.19 ( 0.02), -3.13 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p150, -3.66 ( 0.02), -2.65 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p151, -3.75 ( 0.02), -2.76 ( 0.01) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -3.96 ( 0.03), -3.35 ( 0.02) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -3.14 ( 0.03), -2.49 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -3.66 ( 0.04), -2.50 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -3.83 ( 0.03), -2.62 ( 0.02) MRI-CGCM3, -3.63 ( 0.02), -2.75 ( 0.02) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -2.10 ( 0.04), -1.92 ( 0.02) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -2.36 ( 0.05), -1.99 ( 0.03) CESM1.2, -4.80 ( 0.04), -3.87 ( 0.02) HadCM3-PMIP3, -5.84 ( 0.03), -4.12 ( 0.02) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -4.93 ( 0.03), -3.38 ( 0.02) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -5.44 ( 0.03), -3.90 ( 0.02) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -2.46 ( 0.01), -1.74 ( 0.01) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -2.45 ( 0.01), -1.73 ( 0.01) INM-CM4-8, -2.86 ( 0.02), -2.41 ( 0.01) IPSLCM5A2, -4.07 ( 0.03), -3.34 ( 0.02) MIROC-ES2L, -2.51 ( 0.04), -2.22 ( 0.03) MPI-ESM-1.2, -2.84 ( 0.05), -2.00 ( 0.03) UoT-CCSM4, -2.89 ( 0.03), -2.37 ( 0.01) ===================================== region: Tropics Continental reconstructions from : Cleator et al., 2020 MAT LGM - PI anomaly, average (standard deviation), in K -4.76 ( 1.05) Marine reconstructions from : Tierney et al., 2020 (w/ data assimilation) MAT LGM - PI anomaly, average (standard deviation), in K -3.65 ( 0.22) model results (model output only taken over reconstruction sites) model name, average (std) over land, average (std) over oceans CCSM4, -3.26 ( 0.03), -2.19 ( 0.02) CNRM-CM5, -2.32 ( 0.02), -1.37 ( 0.01) COSMOS-aso, -5.61 ( 0.09), -3.30 ( 0.06) FGOALS-g2, -4.19 ( 0.02), -2.57 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p150, -3.66 ( 0.02), -2.58 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p151, -3.75 ( 0.02), -2.69 ( 0.01) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -3.96 ( 0.03), -2.99 ( 0.02) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -3.14 ( 0.03), -2.13 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -3.66 ( 0.04), -2.08 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -3.83 ( 0.03), -2.20 ( 0.02) MRI-CGCM3, -3.63 ( 0.02), -2.52 ( 0.01) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -2.10 ( 0.04), -1.63 ( 0.02) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -2.36 ( 0.05), -1.70 ( 0.03) CESM1.2, -4.80 ( 0.04), -3.69 ( 0.02) HadCM3-PMIP3, -5.84 ( 0.03), -3.29 ( 0.02) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -4.93 ( 0.03), -2.80 ( 0.02) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -5.44 ( 0.03), -3.21 ( 0.02) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -2.46 ( 0.01), -1.52 ( 0.01) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -2.45 ( 0.01), -1.50 ( 0.01) INM-CM4-8, -2.86 ( 0.02), -1.80 ( 0.01) IPSLCM5A2, -4.07 ( 0.03), -2.91 ( 0.01) MIROC-ES2L, -2.51 ( 0.04), -1.94 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-1.2, -2.84 ( 0.05), -1.76 ( 0.02) UoT-CCSM4, -2.89 ( 0.03), -2.49 ( 0.01) ===================================== region: Tropics Continental reconstructions from : Cleator et al., 2020 MAT LGM - PI anomaly, average (standard deviation), in K -4.76 ( 1.05) Marine reconstructions from : GLOMAP 2020, (Paul et al., 2020) MAT LGM - PI anomaly, average (standard deviation), in K -1.20 ( 0.30) model results (model output only taken over reconstruction sites) model name, average (std) over land, average (std) over oceans ===================================== region: Globe Continental reconstructions from : Bartlein et al., 2011 MAT LGM - PI anomaly, average (standard deviation), in K -6.15 ( 1.35) Marine reconstructions from : MARGO 2009 MAT LGM - PI anomaly, average (standard deviation), in K -2.07 ( 0.81) model results (model output only taken over reconstruction sites) model name, average (std) over land, average (std) over oceans CCSM4, -6.46 ( 0.03), -3.29 ( 0.01) CNRM-CM5, -3.36 ( 0.03), -1.80 ( 0.01) COSMOS-aso, -6.91 ( 0.05), -4.75 ( 0.05) FGOALS-g2, -7.19 ( 0.03), -3.93 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p150, -7.98 ( 0.03), -3.39 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p151, -8.31 ( 0.03), -3.61 ( 0.01) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -6.61 ( 0.03), -3.72 ( 0.02) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -7.74 ( 0.03), -4.03 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -6.28 ( 0.03), -2.95 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -6.99 ( 0.03), -3.08 ( 0.02) MRI-CGCM3, -5.32 ( 0.03), -3.16 ( 0.02) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -4.20 ( 0.03), -2.27 ( 0.01) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -4.20 ( 0.04), -2.11 ( 0.02) CESM1.2, -7.66 ( 0.03), -4.81 ( 0.02) HadCM3-PMIP3, -9.38 ( 0.03), -5.71 ( 0.02) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -7.60 ( 0.03), -4.16 ( 0.01) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -7.95 ( 0.03), -4.71 ( 0.01) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -3.43 ( 0.04), -2.54 ( 0.01) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -3.29 ( 0.04), -2.53 ( 0.01) INM-CM4-8, -6.39 ( 0.03), -3.04 ( 0.02) IPSLCM5A2, -6.74 ( 0.03), -3.68 ( 0.01) MIROC-ES2L, -5.27 ( 0.03), -2.96 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-1.2, -5.23 ( 0.03), -2.37 ( 0.02) UoT-CCSM4, -6.07 ( 0.02), -3.27 ( 0.01) ===================================== region: Globe Continental reconstructions from : Cleator et al., 2020 MAT LGM - PI anomaly, average (standard deviation), in K -6.18 ( 1.09) Marine reconstructions from : Tierney et al., 2020 (w/o data assimilation) MAT LGM - PI anomaly, average (standard deviation), in K -2.95 ( 0.55) model results (model output only taken over reconstruction sites) model name, average (std) over land, average (std) over oceans CCSM4, -5.28 ( 0.03), -3.80 ( 0.01) CNRM-CM5, -2.77 ( 0.02), -2.01 ( 0.02) COSMOS-aso, -5.90 ( 0.06), -5.15 ( 0.05) FGOALS-g2, -5.43 ( 0.02), -4.73 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p150, -7.19 ( 0.02), -3.95 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p151, -7.49 ( 0.02), -4.32 ( 0.01) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -5.13 ( 0.03), -3.97 ( 0.02) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -5.99 ( 0.03), -4.85 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -4.93 ( 0.03), -3.29 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -5.57 ( 0.03), -3.47 ( 0.02) MRI-CGCM3, -4.52 ( 0.02), -3.50 ( 0.02) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -3.42 ( 0.03), -2.50 ( 0.01) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -3.44 ( 0.04), -2.26 ( 0.02) CESM1.2, -6.53 ( 0.03), -5.16 ( 0.02) HadCM3-PMIP3, -7.81 ( 0.02), -6.52 ( 0.02) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -6.56 ( 0.02), -4.82 ( 0.01) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -6.77 ( 0.02), -5.34 ( 0.01) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -3.14 ( 0.03), -2.78 ( 0.01) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -3.04 ( 0.03), -2.80 ( 0.01) INM-CM4-8, -4.91 ( 0.02), -3.57 ( 0.02) IPSLCM5A2, -5.35 ( 0.02), -4.05 ( 0.01) MIROC-ES2L, -4.54 ( 0.03), -3.49 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-1.2, -4.27 ( 0.03), -2.58 ( 0.02) UoT-CCSM4, -4.95 ( 0.02), -3.88 ( 0.01) =====================================