Numerical data for regional model-data comparison figure ======================================================== region: Tropics; variable: MATocean, period: LGM main reconstruction: MARGO 2009 reconstructions, average (std): -1.55 ( 0.70) model results - average (std) CCSM4, -2.31 ( 0.02) CNRM-CM5, -1.50 ( 0.02) COSMOS-aso, -3.66 ( 0.06) FGOALS-g2, -2.80 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p150, -2.55 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p151, -2.65 ( 0.01) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -3.15 ( 0.02) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -2.28 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -2.30 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -2.41 ( 0.02) MRI-CGCM3, -2.63 ( 0.02) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -1.80 ( 0.02) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -1.89 ( 0.03) CESM1.2, -3.81 ( 0.02) HadCM3-PMIP3, -3.71 ( 0.02) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -3.09 ( 0.02) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -3.59 ( 0.02) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -1.65 ( 0.01) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -1.63 ( 0.01) INM-CM4-8, -2.12 ( 0.01) IPSLCM5A2, -3.09 ( 0.02) MIROC-ES2L, -2.04 ( 0.03) MPI-ESM-1.2, -1.88 ( 0.03) UoT-CCSM4, -2.39 ( 0.02) ======================================================== region: Tropics; variable: MATocean, period: LGM main reconstruction: Tierney et al., 2020 (w/ data assimilation) reconstructions, average (std): -3.65 ( 0.22) model results - average (std) CCSM4, -2.19 ( 0.02) CNRM-CM5, -1.37 ( 0.01) COSMOS-aso, -3.30 ( 0.06) FGOALS-g2, -2.57 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p150, -2.58 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p151, -2.69 ( 0.01) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -2.99 ( 0.02) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -2.13 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -2.08 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -2.20 ( 0.02) MRI-CGCM3, -2.52 ( 0.01) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -1.63 ( 0.02) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -1.70 ( 0.03) CESM1.2, -3.69 ( 0.02) HadCM3-PMIP3, -3.29 ( 0.02) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -2.80 ( 0.02) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -3.21 ( 0.02) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -1.52 ( 0.01) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -1.50 ( 0.01) INM-CM4-8, -1.80 ( 0.01) IPSLCM5A2, -2.91 ( 0.01) MIROC-ES2L, -1.94 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-1.2, -1.76 ( 0.02) UoT-CCSM4, -2.49 ( 0.01) ======================================================== region: NorthAtlantic; variable: MATocean, period: LGM main reconstruction: Tierney et al., 2020 (w/o data assimilation) reconstructions, average (std): -3.83 ( 0.51) model results - average (std) CCSM4, -3.02 ( 0.04) CNRM-CM5, 0.05 ( 0.05) COSMOS-aso, -3.91 ( 0.08) FGOALS-g2, -5.25 ( 0.03) GISS-E2-R-p150, -3.51 ( 0.03) GISS-E2-R-p151, -3.55 ( 0.03) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -2.94 ( 0.05) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -4.20 ( 0.05) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -1.37 ( 0.05) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -1.48 ( 0.04) MRI-CGCM3, -1.93 ( 0.07) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -2.03 ( 0.04) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -0.97 ( 0.04) CESM1.2, -4.63 ( 0.05) HadCM3-PMIP3, -10.38 ( 0.10) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -4.10 ( 0.05) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -6.22 ( 0.06) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -3.11 ( 0.04) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -3.24 ( 0.04) INM-CM4-8, -6.89 ( 0.05) IPSLCM5A2, -3.22 ( 0.05) MIROC-ES2L, -2.96 ( 0.04) MPI-ESM-1.2, -1.29 ( 0.04) UoT-CCSM4, -5.21 ( 0.05) ======================================================== region: Tropics; variable: MATocean, period: LGM main reconstruction: Tierney et al., 2020 (w/o data assimilation) reconstructions, average (std): -2.62 ( 0.53) model results - average (std) CCSM4, -2.46 ( 0.02) CNRM-CM5, -1.65 ( 0.02) COSMOS-aso, -3.94 ( 0.06) FGOALS-g2, -3.13 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p150, -2.65 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p151, -2.76 ( 0.01) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -3.35 ( 0.02) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -2.49 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -2.50 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -2.62 ( 0.02) MRI-CGCM3, -2.75 ( 0.01) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -1.92 ( 0.02) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -1.99 ( 0.03) CESM1.2, -3.87 ( 0.02) HadCM3-PMIP3, -4.11 ( 0.02) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -3.38 ( 0.02) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -3.90 ( 0.02) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -1.74 ( 0.01) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -1.73 ( 0.01) INM-CM4-8, -2.41 ( 0.01) IPSLCM5A2, -3.34 ( 0.02) MIROC-ES2L, -2.22 ( 0.03) MPI-ESM-1.2, -2.00 ( 0.03) UoT-CCSM4, -2.37 ( 0.01) ======================================================== region: NorthAtlantic; variable: MATocean, period: LGM main reconstruction: MARGO 2009 reconstructions, average (std): -4.55 ( 1.17) model results - average (std) CCSM4, -3.59 ( 0.04) CNRM-CM5, 0.00 ( 0.05) COSMOS-aso, -4.57 ( 0.09) FGOALS-g2, -5.62 ( 0.03) GISS-E2-R-p150, -3.59 ( 0.03) GISS-E2-R-p151, -3.61 ( 0.04) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -3.32 ( 0.05) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -4.88 ( 0.05) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -1.64 ( 0.05) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -1.72 ( 0.05) MRI-CGCM3, -2.12 ( 0.08) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -2.26 ( 0.04) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -1.05 ( 0.04) CESM1.2, -5.28 ( 0.05) HadCM3-PMIP3, -11.52 ( 0.11) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -4.31 ( 0.05) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -6.92 ( 0.06) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -3.17 ( 0.04) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -3.30 ( 0.04) INM-CM4-8, -7.31 ( 0.06) IPSLCM5A2, -3.53 ( 0.05) MIROC-ES2L, -3.15 ( 0.04) MPI-ESM-1.2, -1.47 ( 0.04) UoT-CCSM4, -5.65 ( 0.05) ======================================================== region: Tropics; variable: MATocean, period: LGM main reconstruction: GLOMAP 2020, (Paul et al., 2020) reconstructions, average (std): -1.20 ( 0.30) model results - average (std) CCSM4, -2.21 ( 0.02) CNRM-CM5, -1.38 ( 0.01) COSMOS-aso, -3.34 ( 0.06) FGOALS-g2, -2.59 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p150, -2.55 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p151, -2.67 ( 0.01) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -3.02 ( 0.02) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -2.15 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -2.11 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -2.23 ( 0.02) MRI-CGCM3, -2.54 ( 0.01) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -1.65 ( 0.02) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -1.72 ( 0.03) CESM1.2, -3.70 ( 0.02) HadCM3-PMIP3, -3.35 ( 0.02) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -2.84 ( 0.02) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -3.26 ( 0.02) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -1.54 ( 0.01) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -1.53 ( 0.01) INM-CM4-8, -1.83 ( 0.01) IPSLCM5A2, -2.94 ( 0.02) MIROC-ES2L, -1.96 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-1.2, -1.76 ( 0.02) UoT-CCSM4, -2.46 ( 0.01) ======================================================== region: NorthAtlantic; variable: MATocean, period: LGM main reconstruction: Kurahashi-Nakamura et al., 2017 reconstructions, average (std): -6.11 ( 0.00) model results - average (std) CCSM4, -3.75 ( 0.04) CNRM-CM5, -0.09 ( 0.04) COSMOS-aso, -4.05 ( 0.07) FGOALS-g2, -5.16 ( 0.03) GISS-E2-R-p150, -3.31 ( 0.03) GISS-E2-R-p151, -3.38 ( 0.03) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -3.37 ( 0.05) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -4.87 ( 0.04) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -1.82 ( 0.04) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -1.96 ( 0.04) MRI-CGCM3, -2.31 ( 0.08) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -2.06 ( 0.03) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -1.24 ( 0.04) CESM1.2, -4.65 ( 0.04) HadCM3-PMIP3, -10.52 ( 0.09) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -4.36 ( 0.05) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -6.39 ( 0.05) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -3.22 ( 0.03) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -3.38 ( 0.03) INM-CM4-8, -6.98 ( 0.05) IPSLCM5A2, -3.56 ( 0.06) MIROC-ES2L, -3.18 ( 0.03) MPI-ESM-1.2, -1.56 ( 0.03) UoT-CCSM4, -5.16 ( 0.04) ======================================================== region: Tropics; variable: MATocean, period: LGM main reconstruction: Kurahashi-Nakamura et al., 2017 reconstructions, average (std): -1.74 ( 0.00) model results - average (std) CCSM4, -2.18 ( 0.02) CNRM-CM5, -1.36 ( 0.01) COSMOS-aso, -3.29 ( 0.06) FGOALS-g2, -2.55 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p150, -2.55 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p151, -2.66 ( 0.01) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -2.99 ( 0.02) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -2.12 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -2.08 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -2.19 ( 0.02) MRI-CGCM3, -2.51 ( 0.01) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -1.63 ( 0.02) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -1.69 ( 0.03) CESM1.2, -3.69 ( 0.02) HadCM3-PMIP3, -3.28 ( 0.02) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -2.79 ( 0.02) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -3.21 ( 0.02) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -1.53 ( 0.01) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -1.51 ( 0.01) INM-CM4-8, -1.78 ( 0.01) IPSLCM5A2, -2.90 ( 0.01) MIROC-ES2L, -1.94 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-1.2, -1.75 ( 0.02) UoT-CCSM4, -2.48 ( 0.01) ======================================================== region: NorthAtlantic; variable: MATocean, period: LGM main reconstruction: GLOMAP 2020, (Paul et al., 2020) reconstructions, average (std): -3.79 ( 0.93) model results - average (std) CCSM4, -3.78 ( 0.03) CNRM-CM5, -0.09 ( 0.04) COSMOS-aso, -4.06 ( 0.07) FGOALS-g2, -5.16 ( 0.03) GISS-E2-R-p150, -3.32 ( 0.03) GISS-E2-R-p151, -3.39 ( 0.03) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -3.36 ( 0.05) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -4.89 ( 0.04) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -1.81 ( 0.04) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -1.95 ( 0.04) MRI-CGCM3, -2.33 ( 0.08) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -2.05 ( 0.03) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -1.24 ( 0.04) CESM1.2, -4.65 ( 0.04) HadCM3-PMIP3, -10.55 ( 0.09) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -4.38 ( 0.05) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -6.39 ( 0.05) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -3.20 ( 0.03) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -3.34 ( 0.03) INM-CM4-8, -7.00 ( 0.05) IPSLCM5A2, -3.56 ( 0.06) MIROC-ES2L, -3.19 ( 0.03) MPI-ESM-1.2, -1.55 ( 0.03) UoT-CCSM4, -5.20 ( 0.04) ======================================================== region: Tropics; variable: MATocean, period: LGM main reconstruction: Annan and Hargreaves 2013 reconstructions, average (std): -1.60 ( 0.70) model results - average (std) CCSM4, -2.27 ( 0.02) CNRM-CM5, -1.44 ( 0.01) COSMOS-aso, -3.42 ( 0.06) FGOALS-g2, -2.68 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p150, -2.60 ( 0.01) GISS-E2-R-p151, -2.72 ( 0.01) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -3.07 ( 0.02) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -2.20 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -2.17 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -2.29 ( 0.02) MRI-CGCM3, -2.58 ( 0.01) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -1.67 ( 0.02) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -1.74 ( 0.03) CESM1.2, -3.74 ( 0.02) HadCM3-PMIP3, -3.45 ( 0.02) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -2.91 ( 0.02) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -3.34 ( 0.02) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -1.58 ( 0.01) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -1.56 ( 0.01) INM-CM4-8, -1.90 ( 0.01) IPSLCM5A2, -3.00 ( 0.02) MIROC-ES2L, -1.98 ( 0.02) MPI-ESM-1.2, -1.82 ( 0.02) UoT-CCSM4, -2.49 ( 0.01) ======================================================== region: NorthAtlantic; variable: MATocean, period: LGM main reconstruction: Annan and Hargreaves 2013 reconstructions, average (std): -4.48 ( 0.00) model results - average (std) CCSM4, -4.23 ( 0.04) CNRM-CM5, -0.36 ( 0.04) COSMOS-aso, -4.59 ( 0.07) FGOALS-g2, -5.51 ( 0.03) GISS-E2-R-p150, -3.38 ( 0.03) GISS-E2-R-p151, -3.46 ( 0.03) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -3.62 ( 0.05) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -5.44 ( 0.04) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -2.11 ( 0.04) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -2.26 ( 0.04) MRI-CGCM3, -2.67 ( 0.08) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -2.20 ( 0.03) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -1.36 ( 0.03) CESM1.2, -4.99 ( 0.04) HadCM3-PMIP3, -11.08 ( 0.09) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -4.75 ( 0.05) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -6.81 ( 0.05) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -3.33 ( 0.03) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -3.60 ( 0.03) INM-CM4-8, -7.20 ( 0.05) IPSLCM5A2, -3.81 ( 0.06) MIROC-ES2L, -3.37 ( 0.03) MPI-ESM-1.2, -1.78 ( 0.03) UoT-CCSM4, -5.58 ( 0.04) ======================================================== region: NorthAtlantic; variable: MATocean, period: LGM main reconstruction: Tierney et al., 2020 (w/ data assimilation) reconstructions, average (std): -4.81 ( 0.31) model results - average (std) CCSM4, -4.02 ( 0.03) CNRM-CM5, -0.20 ( 0.04) COSMOS-aso, -4.35 ( 0.07) FGOALS-g2, -5.31 ( 0.03) GISS-E2-R-p150, -3.38 ( 0.03) GISS-E2-R-p151, -3.46 ( 0.04) IPSL-CM5A-LR, -3.45 ( 0.05) MIROC-ESM-CMIP5, -5.19 ( 0.04) MPI-ESM-P-p2, -1.93 ( 0.04) MPI-ESM-P-p1, -2.08 ( 0.04) MRI-CGCM3, -2.50 ( 0.08) AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, -2.05 ( 0.03) AWI-ESM-2-1-LR, -1.24 ( 0.04) CESM1.2, -4.74 ( 0.04) HadCM3-PMIP3, -10.77 ( 0.09) HadCM3-ICE6GC, -4.52 ( 0.05) HadCM3-GLAC1D, -6.57 ( 0.06) iLOVECLIM-ICE-6G, -3.24 ( 0.03) iLOVECLIM-GLAC1D, -3.44 ( 0.03) INM-CM4-8, -6.99 ( 0.05) IPSLCM5A2, -3.67 ( 0.06) MIROC-ES2L, -3.28 ( 0.03) MPI-ESM-1.2, -1.62 ( 0.03) UoT-CCSM4, -5.41 ( 0.04) ========================================================